Posted By:Bretsky on March 25, 2022

The Dodgers have not one but two second baseman in the top tier despite the fact that neither is really expected to see any time at the position. Trea Turner will slide over to shortstop for the Dodgers but it doesn’t really matter where he plays defense, this is a fantasy stud and worthy of the top overall selection. Mookie Betts also sneaks in as a top-tier second baseman where eligible and probably gets a slight boost in platforms where the infield eligibility sticks.

ADP Targets

Ketel Marte (76) continues to fly under the radar as a rock solid bat… Max Muncy‘s (108) health has likely pushed him down in early drafts but its tough to underrate what he’s done when on the field… Jonathan Schoop (231) and Cesar Hernandez (356) remains some of my favorite late-round vets at the position.

ADP Fades

As in the outfield, we’re avoiding Whit Merrifield (34) in the top 40.

2022 Second Base Rankings

Posted By:Bretsky on March 25, 2022

The first base position is simpler than most. Instead of focusing on roster construction and teams needs, you know what you are getting out of your first base position homers and RBI. As such we really prioritize power in these rankings. Both the universal DH and post-lockout player movement have opened up at-bats for a number of really interesting players so we have a lot to choose from here.

ADP Targets

Pete Alonso (46) offers a ton of pop and comes at a slight discount compared to Vladito and Matt Olson…. Rhys Hoskins (131) should be healthy to stat the year and will hit near the top of a lineup that added significant thumb in the offseason…  Joey Votto (127) continues to rake into his golden years… We’re willing to see if Luke Voit (242) can recapture the power stroke of 2020 as he moves to San Diego.

ADP Fades

I like Jared Walsh (112) as a player, but the price is too steep… DJ LaMahieu (118) just doesn’t fit the bill as a first baseman but can work fine as a roster piece to plug in elsewhere.

2022 First Base Rankings

Posted By:Bretsky on March 25, 2022

The catcher position is my least favorite to handle and honestly, I usually end up just looking to accumulate some pop rather than invest much draft value there. The volatility and injury risk is just too high to sink a top-100 pick into the position, though we’ll have to see how the NL DH may impact some of the playing time for the better options in that league.

ADP Targets

Mitch Garver (195) is probably plan A, B and C.

ADP Fades

The top tier — Sal Perez (30), JT Realmuto(58), Will Smith (61) — they are all awesome, but not gonna end up on my squads.

2022 Catcher Rankings

Posted By:Bretsky on August 28, 2021

It is no surprise that Travis Kelce once again sits atop the tight end rankings. Kelce has ripped off five straight 1,000+ yard season, topping out at 1,416 yards in 2020 while trailing only Stefon Diggs in receiving yards across the league. Kelce is unlikely to make it into the second round in many league and he’s fair game outside the top six in standard scoring formats. The top tier also serves up a couple of more affordable options in George Kittle and Darren Waller and if you are lucky enough to have a pick early in the first round, these guys both make sense in tail end of the second before diving into the wide receiver position.

ADP Targets

Mark Andrews (54.3) regressed a bit with the first half struggles on Lamar Jackson, but still managed 58 catches for 701 yards and seven scores. He remains a focal point in the banged up Ravens receiving corp and is threat to get back to double digit touchdowns… Tyler Higbee (108.4) flashed down the stretch in 2019 and could see a new bump in value with Matthew Stafford taking over at QB… Once Rob Gornkowski (119.2) got his legs under him with the Bucs last year he proved to be a still viable red zone threat… Evan Engram (154.2) has always looked the part despite rarely putting it all together. His discounted draft cost is now worth the risk… Pat Freiermuth (161.5) doesn’t get the hype of fellow rookie Kyle Pitts, but the Steelers rookie was a red zone machine in college and let’s face it, Eric Ebron stinks.

Top 40 Tight End Rankings

Posted By:Bretsky on August 25, 2021

Davante Adams proved in 2020 to be the most reliable touchdown threat in the fantasy game, reeling in 18 touchdowns in just 14 games played. He was held out of the end zone in just three of his 14 starts, while posting multiple scores on five different occasions. Only Stefon Diggs, Deandre Hopkins and Allen Robinson saw more than Adams’ 148 targets last season and with Aaron Rodgers looking to run it back in Green Bay, a repeat year as the top wideout in fantasy is well within reach.

Despite this effusive praise for Adams, the first tier contains 12 studs who all could find a path to the overall top spot and even though I’m more likely to snare a running back or tight end with a first round pick, I’d like to leave the draft with two receivers from this elite tier.

ADP Targets

Among the elite, Chris Godwin (46.1) and DJ Moore (63.0) leap off the page as values at the top end of the position. Godwin has scored 23 times over 42 games since 2018 while averaging 5 catches for 72 yards per game over that span. Moore has returned back-to-back 1100 yard seasons playing with a myriad of mediocre quarterbacks and while Sam Darnold hasn’t necessarily done anything to separate himself from that description, he certainly has a bigger arm than Teddy B.

Digging a little deeper, both Diontae Johnson (51.3) and Chase Claypool (66.8) in Pittsburgh make for fine draft day selections… Antonio Brown (86.9) showed an improved comfort with Tom Brady late in season and during the playoffs and will benefit from a full year in the system if he can keep his head on the field… Jerry Jeudy (77.8) is the receiver you want in Denver… Michael Pittman (102.6) flashed elite after-the-catch ability last season and could make a leap.

In the end game, everyone forgets about Marvin Jones Jr. (133.4) and he just continues to put up numbers… I guess I’m back on board with Sammy Watkins (200+) one more time if he’s the only healthy WR for Lamar…. Marquez Callaway (148.1) is sure to shoot up draft boards after his pre-season heroics, but he’ll still represent a discount as the top target in New Orleans (at least for now)… Take a shot on Quez Watkins (200+) with your last pick, you’ll know if the Eagles offense has any juice real quick.

Top 100 Wide Receiver Rankings

Posted By:Bretsky on August 24, 2021

The top spot in the running back rankings this year is closer than many others. Christian McCaffrey gets the slight nudge over Dalvin Cook, but the gap is razor thin. Arranging the rest of the top tier is a fun but futile exercise. Sure, Derrick Henry‘s pass-game usage is troubling, but he just keep on producing. Aaron Jones and Ezekiel Elliott get the bump over Alvin Kamara as we are a little more confident in the quarterback play and overall scoring output in Green Bay and Dallas.

ADP Targets

While you love leaving round one with a top tier option, it’s really not up to you if picking outside the top six. Among the next group, Austin Ekeler (10.6) and his target volume makes him the prime target at the back end of the first round for me. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (16.4) and Najee Harris (13.5) can both slip deep in the second round but should be in consideration at the 1/2 turn.

Deeper into the draft, Darell Henderson (34.0) and Miles Sanders (36.3) stand out as the third round running backs that we are most likely to take the dive on. James Robinson’s (45.5) ADP is likely to skyrocket following the news that Travis Etienne is going to miss the season, but perhaps he remains a value as some fail to adjust quickly enough… Raheem Mostert (53.7) is one of the best home run hitters in the league when healthy… Phillip Lindsay (105.9) has the most juice in the Texans’ backfield and while the team is likely to be awful, there is value in volume… Ty Johnson (200+) looks like he may lead the Jets’ running back committee… Jerrick McKinnon (200+) is an interesting athlete and should he be needed for a larger role in KC, it could be a very productive one.

Top 100 Running Back Rankings

Posted By:Bretsky on August 24, 2021

The Quarterback position is extremely fun heading into the 2021 season. We all know rushing equity can vault an inconsistent passer into the top-10 on regular basis, but the reliable touchdown throwers Pat Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady continue to make their presence felt in the first two tiers.

Russell Wilson gets the second spot here and while he faded down the stretch in 2020, we saw QB1 upside continually over the season’s first half. Dak Prescott sneaks into Tier 1, but his health remains a situation to monitor as the season approaches.

ADP Targets

With Rodgers ranked third on the board, his ADP as QB6 would seem attractive, but at 52 overall, that is still usually a but earlier than I’d like to dive in on a quarterback. Wilson is a similar case and while I can’t fault anyone for taking the plunge on Russ in round six, I’m likely trying to hang on just a little longer. If either slips into round seven, it’s time to pounce.

Ryan Tannehill (92.3) is a very solid target and a good bet to build off of a strong 2020 season in which he tossed 33 touchdowns to just seven interceptions and now adds Julio Jones to his set of targets… Jalen Hurts (95.8) put up together a run of useful fantasy games down the stretch despite the fact that he did not play particularly well. His status as the Eagles starter, rushing usage and week-winning upside–that 400+ total yard/4 TD, 37.8 point performance in Week 15 last year–make Hurts a target… Matt Ryan doesn’t get anyone too excited on draft day, but he’s 4,500 yards and 26 TDs in the bank… Trey Lance is the top rookie target here, even if he doesn’t get the starting job day one. The rushing ability and talent on that Kyle Shanahan offense is much easier to trust than anything you will see in Chicago or Jacksonville… Digging at the bottom of the barrel, Ben Roethlisberger (159.4) continues to put up numbers, Sam Darnold (200+) has some really nice targets, as does Teddy Bridgewater (200+) should he be able to hold off Drew Lock.

Top-40 Quarterback Rankings

Posted By:Bretsky on March 23, 2021

Traditionally, I’ve been a wait-on-pitching type of drafter — scooping up three or four exciting bats before even thinking about addressing the rotation. The lack of volume and perhaps the sheer awesome-ness that is a top tier led by Jacob deGrom has changed things here just a bit. DeGrom, Shane Bieber and Gerrit Cole have become first-round staples as we navigate a pre-season riddled with questions on innings caps. One thing that is certain now that we know that the will be no DH in the NL, deGrom comfortably sits atop this list.

The second tier is where things get truly interesting. Just about everyone ranks Yu Darvish, Trevor Bauer, Max Scherzer, Walker Buehler, Lucas Giolito and Clayton Kershaw as the next handful of arms, but there is absolutely no consensus on who is at the top of the tier. Nola, Darvish and Scherzer were in consideration for the four spot on my list and, despite some health concerns and performance concerns, Max Scherzer continues to occupy that position. Everything went in the wrong direction in 2020 for Max, his K% dipped to a five-year low (albeit at a still excellent 31.2%). He also walked more guys, allowed more hits and homers than in any point since he joined the Nationals. Still, the velocity is just fine, the strikeouts remain elite and we’re banking on Scherzer getting right as he shakes off a forgettable 2020.

As we navigate the lower tiers. I’m planning to leave the draft table with one or two arms from the top couple of tiers while going offense-heavy in the top-100 picks. Beyond that, there are a ton of interesting names, many of which may not survive April on my roster.

ADP Targets

In what will become a theme in this section we look to a couple of grizzled veterans — Max Scherzer (23) and Clayton Kershaw (31) — as two of the names that jump out in the first couple of rounds. Layne Lynn (54) is probably my most-owned pitcher thanks to what should be very reliable innings volume paired with perennially underrated consistency. Kenta Maeda (49) also sticks around a bit longer than his recent performance should allow and can be a nice value after the top-10 is off the board. Digging deeper, I am in on Stephen Strasburg (63) and if your draft room is scared by his constant health concerns, he’s a fine number two if paired with a more stable ace.

Charlie Morton (116), Zack Grienke (97) and Patrick Corbin (126) all get the boring-vet discount but have all the tools to return top-15 value. On the opposite end of his career, Sandy Alcantara (136) leads an up and coming Marlins rotation and is the one you want on your fantasy roster.

In the later rounds, we’re interested in a return from Corey Kluber (150) and Marcus Stroman (202). John Means (264) showed promise down the stretch in 2020. Mike Minor (294) is throwing harder and can offer volume with decent Ks. Robbie Ray (283) looks solid in the spring and Freddy Peralta (312) looks like he might finally get another shot in the rotation.

Top 120-ish Starting Pitcher Rankings for 2021

Posted By:Bretsky on March 18, 2021

We are just a few weeks away from opening day and while draft season picks up, it’s hard to contain the excitement for the coming season. Today we’re taking a walk through the what I feel is the most important offensive position — the outfield. The position contains the largest volume of first round talent, a swath of power/speed guys as well as some of the most exciting young players in the game.

Checking your league settings and eligibility rules will be of the utmost importance when planning your draft day strategy in the outfield. Restrictive Util-only candidates in some platforms can turn into underrated studs if they carry that extra eligibility, so why not take a look and see if Giancarlo Stanton, Yordan Alvarez or Trey Mancini can help you outside of the single utility spot. I love to hammer away at the outfield in the first quarter of the draft and if you are playing in a 5 OF league, finding the core of your offense is even more critical.

The top four players on my draft board sit in the outfield and while Mookie Betts gets the nod for me for his blend of stability, lineup support and plus production in literally every category, I certainly can’t doubt that Juan Soto or Ronald Acuna offer a bit more upside. Mike Trout could easily top the list as well and while Christian Yelich is not in that No. 1 overall conversation right now, he certainly was there 365 days ago and he has all the ability to get right back to that level. Cody Bellinger and Bryce Harper round out the top-tier and I am likely walking away from the draft table with at least one of these players on my roster.

ADP Targets

At the back end of the first round, Christian Yelich (10 adp) seems like a strong consolation prize for anyone wishing they could snag a top-4 guy. The shortened season was not kind to Yelich and while he finished with a disappointing .205 average, he continued to post a strong walk rate while mashing 12 homers and stealing four bags in 247 PAs. In Yelich’s previous two seasons, he averaged 40 home runs 26 steals with a .327 average, I’m willing to give just about anyone a pass for struggling in 2020.

Digging a little deeper, Starling Marte (52) always offers underrated juice for your fantasy squad. Yordan Alvarez (82) claims he’s healthy and has already shown he can be an elite bat when he’s right. Perhaps its a bit risky in deep leagues, but in a 10 or 12-teamer, Alvarez is a tasty gamble. Mike Yastrzemski (115) would be a top-100 player on draft day if he played in an east coast market. Michael Brantley (146) is quietly excellent year in and year out. Trey Mancini (151), Joc Pederson (281), and Justin Upton (321) ahve consistently produced when on their field and make nice back end options very late.

Top 120-ish Outfield Rankings for 2021

Posted By:Bretsky on March 9, 2021

Fernando Tatis Jr. spent a couple of weeks during the odd year that was 2020 establishing himself as one of the best baseball players on the planet. During one particularly scorching 16-game stretch last season, Tatis slashed .344/.400/.844 with 10 home runs 17 runs scored and 20 RBI. He wrapped the 60-game season with 17 homers 11 steals and a very strong .277/.366/.571 slash and parlayed that performance with a monster 14 year $340 million contract. At just 22 years old, Tatis is one of the most exciting players in the game and warrants consideration as the top overall player in fantasy. I’m not quite ready to put the young stud at the top of my draft board, but I certainly won’t doubt anyone who does.

The great part of it all? Tatis may not even be the top player at his position. Trea Turner led all players in offensive fantasy value last year, adding a touch more pop (career best .253 ISO) to his strong power/speed blend. Turner went 12/12 with a sizzling .335/.394/.588, a pace over 60-games that would stretch to something like a .335-127-33-113-33 line over a full 162 season.

The shortstop position holds a number of other top-tier options that could offer similar 5-category production. This is the juiciest position in fantasy and it’s really hard to go wrong. Given the bevy of options at any price-point, I may be inclined to actually lower each individual player just a touch in the overall rankings, knowing that there will be a solid value at cost whenever you decide to address the position.

ADP Targets

Xander Bogaerts (29) represents a really strong third round pick in any league. He’s sustained the power for three straight seasons now and while he doesn’t offer the top-end speed of those shortstops that will go in the top-20 overall, Bogaerts is as steady as anyone at the position. After a disappointing 2020, Javier Báez looks primed to get back on track as a four-plus category contributor. The projection systems all put Báez in the range of  .250-.260 range with 85 runs and RBIs, 30 homers and double-digit steals. The counting stats are super useful and though the K-rate is always an issue, Baez posted a .281 batting average from 2015-2019 before bottoming out at .203. That projection in the .250-.260 range feels like a hedge and a return to .270+ would not be a surprise at all. Javy remains a major target of mine with an average draft position sitting at 80 overall — the 14th shortstop off the board.

As we dip further Didi Gregorious, who was a top-40 bat in 2020, can be had outside of the top 150 picks in many drafts. Jonathan Villar (234) is interesting at either middle infield spot. Jorge Polanco (194), Andrelton Simmons (436) and Elvis Andrus (343) should provide plenty of volume at the back end of drafts as well.

Top 40-ish Shortstop Rankings for 2021