Posted By:Bretsky on March 16, 2018

The outfield is always one of my favorite positions to build on draft day. Our top two tiers bring us a bevy of powerful options with a few 20/20 candidates sprinkled in.

Top Tier Bargains

J.D. Martinez put up some silly numbers in 2017, blasting 45 home runs and driving in 104 over just 119 games. Since his 2014 breakthrough, Martinez has posted an elite .300/.362/.574 line, with his failure to crack more than 125 games more than once over that span being the only blemish on his record. Quite frankly, Martinez does not need 150 games to return you massive roto value and at this point, I have to approach him much like I do Bryce Harper and Giancarlo Stanton — bet on the talent, hope for the health. the difference between Martinez, Harper and Stanton? J.D. is just might slip to you in round three.

When looking at the second tier,  both Yoenis Cespedes (ADP: 67) and Yasiel Puig (ADP: 109) have the potential to turn massive profit based on past performances and since kicking off drafts a few weeks ago,have ended up on a majority of my teams. Cespedes injury trouble early on certainly will give some pause, so this is certainly one to keep an eye on for updates.

Puig very quietly slashed .263/.346/.487 to go along with 28 home runs and 15 swipes. If he can stay comfortable closer to the top of the Dodgers potent lineup, we’ve got top-10 upside regularly available outside of pick 100 overall.

Thanks, but No Thanks

Billy Hamilton and his sub-.300 OBP are unlikely to find their way onto any of my squads. In this era flush with power, it’s difficult to sacrifice an outfield spot to someone who will likely hurt your average and deliver single digit home runs. There are enough 25/10 bats in this league to make up the steals elsewhere while you are not hurting yourself in other places.

Deep Thoughts

Steven Souza sits outside of the top-50 in terms of outfield ADP and is one of those 25/10 options that can be scooped up in the mid-rounds of drafts. Adam Eaton gives you just enough of everything and is hitting in a fantasy friendly spot atop the Nationals lineup. Whenever Michael Conforto (ADP: 191) gets back on the field, he’s going to mash. Matt Kemp put together a very productive season in 2017 adn while the Dodgers don’t appear to have a starter’s share of at-bats for him, the veteran appears motivated to re-emerge with his old team… I’m buying late. Hunter Pence bottomed out with a .701 OPS over 134 games last year, but even with that performance, he’s averaged 20 home runs and 8 steals per 162 games over the past four seasons. The speed is going, but a healthy pence can provide some counting stats on the cheap.

Outfield Draft Rankings 2018

Posted By:Bretsky on March 8, 2018

The class of the group is easy to find and Trea Turner is the rising star of the group. He’s flashed elite stolen base ability piling up 81 thefts in his first 198 career games. With mid-teens power and potential to steal 50+ bags, Turner reminds us of the days when Carl Crawford and Jose Reyes were first round selections in the mid 2000s. Taking him with the 3rd overall pick presumes he’s going to get you close to that 20 home run plateau, but if you want this dynamic shortstop on your team, thats likely going to be the cost on draft day. I tend to lean towards power bats at the top of my draft boards, but Turner has a clear path to being the No. 1 player in fantasy.

Top Tier Bargains

Carlos Correa  – .288-94-30-111-12 per 162 games played | ADP: 13.3

Corey Seager – .305-102-26-82-4 per 162 games played | ADP: 32.3

As both players head into their 4th major league season, we’ve seen them blossom into fantasy studs at a typically thin position. They’re both great, but Correa is a first/second rounder while Seager can be had in the 3rd or 4th. Now that Seager has begun getting defensive work in spring training, it’s safe to assume he’ll be ready to rock on Opening Day.

Thanks, but No Thanks

It’s easy to say that Elvis Andrus‘ 20 home run campaign in 2017 was a fluke.. so I’ll just do that. Look, he’s a solid player, and bring a steady floor with 20+ steals and a handful of homers each season, but watching his HR/FB rate nearly double with the rest of his profile remaining steady, we’re doubtful of a repeat. He’s a solid player, but watching him push his way toward the fifth round (ADP of 63) is a bit to aggressive for us.

When the thing I like the best about a player is his ballpark, it can be tough to justify a top-100 pick. That’s the case with Trevor Story. he delivered 24 home runs last year to follow up a 27 homer year in 2016, but posted a K-rate north of 30% for the second straight season. Predictably, Story’s average bottomed out at .239 last season after putting up a .272 average the year before. We’ll pass on the slugging shortstop until he can cut down on the whiffs and snag Andrelton Simmons or Zack Cozart six rounds later.

Deep Thoughts

Tim Anderson (ADP: 229) offers some speed and Zack Cozart (ADP: 221) has some pop as a pair of deeper options to fill your shortstop or middle infield spot. We’re also optimistic on a bounce-back effort from Brandon Crawford, who struggle in 2017 after establishing himself as an underrated fantasy option in the years prior.

Shortstop Draft Rankings 2018

Posted By:Bretsky on March 7, 2018

The hot corner is actually a bit of a strange landscape this year with three fat tiers among the top-30 options. Yes, you could argue that Nolan Arenado and Kris Bryant are a slice above, but after Jose Ramirez’ breakout season, a studly second half from Josh Donaldson and some surprise eligibility out of Freddie Freeman, we really have a seven or eight legitimate contenders to finish as the years top third baseman.

Top Tier Bargains

That top-eight, of course, includes the perennially underrated Anthony Rendon. Rendon has quietly averaged a .282-99-22-89-12 5×5 line per 162 games played over his past four seasons while hitting career bests in home runs, average and RBI last season. If you fail to snag a third baseman with one of your first few picks on draft day, Rendon deserves serious consideration anywhere beyond the top-30 overall and makes a nice value around his ADP of 49.

Going about 10 spots ahead of Rendon, on average, Alex Bregman is coming off a very useful roto season with a .284-88-19-71-17 line of his own. He slashed his K-rate in 2017 and benefited from a surging Houston offense. I prefer Rendon of the pair, but a similar argument could be made for Bregman here as a balanced contributor with some upside. It’s no surprise he’s rocketing up draft boards.

Thanks, but No Thanks

It’s hard to find a player whose ADP is completely out of line with their expected production at third base, so I’ll take the chance to throw a tiny cup of cold water on Rafael Devers. He’s the 11th third basemen off the board on average. just ahead of veterans Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Seager and Jake Lamb. If Moustakas had a team, he’d probably sit 20 picks higher in the early ADP and I’d put him at the top of this group after a monster 2017 season. Devers is projected somewhere in the neighborhood of 22 homers, 75 runs scored and 75 RBI with a  .280 ish average. You can take those numbers to the bank with Castellanos, Seager and Lamb, so I’m likely to hedge toward the veteran here.

Deep Thoughts

When Adrian Beltre is on the field, he’s a stud. He’s slipping in drafts thanks to durability concerns, but there’s really no reason to doubt his ability to produce when healthy. Depending on the your league’s roster settings (DL spots anyone?), he could be a steal going around pick 140.

Digging a bit deeper, Josh Harrison carries some solid 5×5 value after blasting a career best 16 homers in 2017. He can give you a little bit of everything with some helpful positional flexibility.

Third Base Draft Rankings 2018

Posted By:Bretsky on March 7, 2018

The second base position gets a little boost at the top if you play in a Yahoo! league and Anthony Rizzo sneaks in that eligibility, but Jose Altuve is clearly the class of the group. He’s the consensus No. 2 overall player on the board so unless you get lucky in that draft lottery and snag a top-2 pick, Altuve will not be likely to be there.

Top Tier Bargains

The veterans in the top tier — Daniel Murphy and Brian Dozier — represent the best draft day value outside of Altuve if you want to take care of the position early.

Thanks, but No Thanks

While I do like Dee Gordon as a player and respect his ability to put up a massive steals total, at pick 32 overall on average (one behind Corey Seager, One ahead of Brian Dozier, and FIFTEEN spots ahead of Anthony Rendon) I cannot justify an invest of that caliber in a speed specialist.

Deep Thoughts

Over 213 career games, Devon Travis has put up a rock solid .292/.331/.462 slash line while averaging 19 home runs and 83 RBI per 162 games. Yes, he’s and injury risk. No, the Blue Jays lineup is not what it once was. This late round pick, however, has shown the skill-set at the major league level of a fantasy stud and will get every chance to hit near the top of Toronto’s lineup. You can easily grab Travis more than 150 slots ahead of his ADP of 366 and turn a profit.

Second Base Draft Rankings 2018

Posted By:Bretsky on March 5, 2018

The first base position is loaded with pop heading into the 2018 fantasy baseball season. Our top tier of first base sluggers run six deep, with up-and-comers Rhys Hoskins and Cody Bellinger poised to join that group with repeat performances of their rookie breakouts.

Coming off of an injury-marred 2017, perennial first-rounder Miguel Cabrera has slipped all the way into our second tier. The Tiger’s lineup is certainly leaves a lot to be desired at this point, but Miggy has some nice bounce back potential if he’s fully healthy.

Top Tier Bargains

Jose Abreu‘s floor of .290-25-100 looks awful nice couple with the fourth round ADP. He’s a phenomenal option if you opt to look somewhere else early, or to pair with another stud as your CI bat.

The anti-humidor hype looks like it could turn stud Paul Goldschmidt into a second round pick (as happened in my NFBC Rotowire Online Championship draft this past weekend). Goldy remains firmly in the No. 3 spot in our overall rankings, so yea, jump on that discount in the late first/early second.

Thanks, but No Thanks

Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers will certainly make the Padres a much more competitive lineup this season, but I’m not excited about either as a top-80 pick on draft day.

Deep Thoughts

Deep leaguers have a number of intriguing options if waiting on first base. Logan Morrison, Jose Martinez and Hanley Ramirez can all be had after pick 200 and come with some serious upside.

First Base Draft Rankings 2018

Posted By:Bretsky on August 22, 2017

It’s that time again. Heading into the busiest fantasy football draft weekend of the 2017 season, we are all prepped up and ready to go.

Ezekiel Elliot remains one of the most difficult players to rank, but remains a top-20 play. While my deep rooted Cowboys’ hate may prevent me personally from spending a second round pick on the second-year back, the potential for game changing numbers over even half of a season make him an intriguing risk.

We’re also confident in a number of bounce-back performances with Lamar Miller, CJ Anderson, Cam Newton and Jeremy Maclin appearing much higher in our list than FantasyPro’s consensus rankings.

Though it sounds like a bit of a broken record year to year, we’re fading the rookie running backs once again, ranking Leonard Fournette, Christian McCaffery and Dalvin Cook a solid 20 spots below each of their consensus positions. Yeah, I get it, there were a number of high-impact fantasy rookies who helped teams last year, each of these backs is faced with an uncertain role to open the season behind (or beside) veterans who really aren’t all that bad. I’m certain that one of these guys will contribute, I’m just not spending a 3rd round pick to find out which one it will be.

We’ll be back tweaking and updating this list as the draft season progresses. Let the games begin!

Posted By:Bretsky on April 21, 2017

After what has been far too long of a layoff, we’re getting back to basics here at BretskyBall and what better way to do that than dust off an old favorite and dive into the free agent pool on a relaxing Friday afternoon.

Just two and a half weeks into the fantasy season, I’ll urge you to remain patient with the team you’ve drafted. Baseball is a grind and with most players sitting with fewer than 60 at-bats on the year it is way, way, waaaaaaaay too early to declare busts, cut bait, or panic. Two good games can turn an absolute dud into a solid contributor.

Of course, the flip side on that argument is that you must still consider your roster and how you can free up some space for those up-and-coming talents that have started off the season hot.

Minnesota Twins’ outfielder Max Kepler fits that bill. After going late or undrafted in many league, Kepler has put together a very productive start to the season, proving to be a more enticing mixed league option than his heavily-hyped teammate Byron Bukkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkkston. Kepler’s 2016 numbers during his first taste of big league action where not all that impressive (.235/.309/.424) but he did mash 17 home runs over 113 games and a poor .261 BABIP can take some of that blame for his dissapointing average.

Kepler is off to a fine start to the year, slashing .309/.361/.509 over 61 at-bats with eight runs scored and seven RBI. Kepler’s power numbers in the minors are not all that impressive, but his plate discipline and performance last year show an improving player who can become an above average major league hitter. Kepler is available in about 68% of standard Yahoo! leagues and is a more attractive add than several more heavily-owned outfielders like Melky Cabrera, Carlos Beltran and teammate Byron Buxton.

Each week we’ll provide a position-by-position roundup of the top talent on the wire. To qualify, players must have an ownership rate below 40% in standard 12-team Yahoo leagues. For our deeper formats, we’ll also throw out names with under 15% ownership.

Working The Waiver Wire

Catcher

Austin Hedges (8%) – After shaking off a slow start in which he was hitless over his first nine games, Hedges has six hits in his last six contests including a pair of homers.

Tom Murphy (8%) – Murphy remains sidelined with a fractured forearm, but it’s only a matter of time before he is the primary catcher for the Rockies and taking half of his hacks at Coors Field.

First Base

Mitch Moreland (27%) – Moreland has long been a solid play agains right-handed pitching and has been productive overall in the season’s opening weeks, batting .344/.420/.574 over 69 plate appearances.

Lucas Duda (13%) – Injuries are always the issue with Duda and, surprise, he’s hurt again already (though thankfully, it’s not his back). If Duda gets right, he’s a very solid and underrated power bat.

Logan Morrison (11%) – LoMo remains a batting average liability, but has shown improved pop so far this year, clubbing three home runs and plating 11 RBI over his first 16 games. He has opportunity in Tampa.

Middle Infield

Zack Cozart (38%) – If your in a league with me, you won’t find Cozart on the waiver wire. He posted a perfectly respectable .252-67-16-50-4 5×5 line over 121 games last season and is the perfect late round middle infielder to fill out your roster. Injuries have been a issue for Cozart but he’s healthy now and hitting a ridiculous .400/.481/.667 over his first 14 games in 2017.

Devon Travis (37%) – It’s been a painful start for the Blue Jays in general and Travis has been one of the weakest links. He’s shown enough over the past two seasons to get a little more leash, however, so if an impatient owner has moved on from Travis, now would be a nice time to scoop him up and stash on your bench. This lineup is too good to slump for too long.

Andrelton Simmons (7%) – For deeper leagues, don’t sleep on Simmons. He’s hit well over the first couple of weeks of the season and despite his recent track record has shown ability to provide double-digit power from a middle infield spot.

Third Base

Matt Davidson (9%) – Don’t expect the average to stay over .300 for all that long, but Davidson has always been an intriguing power prospect. He’s blasted three homers and driven in 10 over just 34 at-bats. Ride him while he’s red hot.

Martin Prado (7%) – Injury delayed Prado’s start to the season so he’s likely to be sitting on most waiver wires. Prado remains a consistent-but-unexciting option in mixed leagues. He’s not going to hurt you anywhere while providing a solid BA and runs scored with modest RBI and power numbers.

Outfield

Michael Conforto (20%) – Though his playing time has been frustratingly sparse, Conforto has been doing everything in his power to prove he’s worth an everyday spot — blasting a pair of home runs and batting .320 over just 25 at-bats.

Jarrod Dyson (23%) – As I wrote for FantasyPros just yesterday: Following a slow start at the dish, Jarrod Dyson’s ownership rate has slipped below the 25% ownership rate in most formats. He is still locked into an everyday role and has found himself hitting at the top of the lineup in five of his last eight starts. Dyson’s piled up four steals on the young season and can still bring plenty of speed to a needy fantasy roster. He’s worth an add for all teams looking for steals.

Josh Reddick (11%) – He fits right in with Houston’s homer-happy lineup so as long as Reddick is getting at-bats he’s an interesting name in all leagues.

Michael Saunders (4%) – We’ll throw in a homer pick from my very own Philadelphia Phillies for good measure. Saunders has always possessed the type of power/speed blend that makes fantasy owners drool. His streakiness is notable, however, Saunders can be an asset when hot. He’s a wait and see type, but worth an add in deeper leagues.

Starters

AJ Griffin (8%) – Griffin has railed off two straight quality starts to bump his record to 2-0 through three turns in the rotation. He’s not a flashy arm, but Griffin has struck out 16 batters with just four walks over his first 15.1 innings and has a couple of productive fantasy seasons under his belt despite some mediocre results coming off of surgery in 2016. If he’s regained the form we saw in 2012-2013, Griffin will be a useful arm in all leagues and is widely available.

Bartolo Colon (24%) – The rotund Colon is always overlooked and is as far from a sexy pickup as you can get. Still, Bartolo pounds the strike zone and continues to get enough strikeouts to matter in fantasy. When things go bad, they can get really ugly, but Colon is a nice spot start, particularly when facing some of his weak NL East opponents.

Jason Hammel (16%) – Hammel is another overlooked veteran who will never be your ace, but will always be a solid No. 4. He was blasted in his first two turns in 2017 but bounced back with a quality start this week. There is no shame with rolling Hammel out every fifth day in 12-team leagues.

Shelby Miller (11%) – While I’ll never trust this guy, the early results indicate that we should be paying attention.

Alex Wood (8%) – The K-rate has always made Wood an interesting name in fantasy so we’ll keep an eye on his performance as he has a clear path to the rotation. now.

Closer Carnage

It will be a constant race to the wire to go mining for saves, here’s how we see it.

Go get ’em: Hector Neris (48%), Santiago Casilla (42%), Joaquin Benoit (42%), Sean Doolittle (18%), Koda Glover (18%), Darren O’Day (7%)

Keep an eye on: Jeremy Jeffress (18%), Michael Lorenzen (8%), Jose Leclerc (4%), Drew Storen (5%)

Posted By:Bretsky on March 26, 2017

Draft Season is in full swing and sometimes, it’s not until you’re literally sitting on the clock until you’re true preferences as a fantasy player are revealed. Given the fluid nature of things, we’ll continue tweaking these ranking right up to Opening Day.

Here is our overall list heading into the 2017 Fantasy Season. Positional breakdowns coming later this week — have at it!

Posted By:Bretsky on October 1, 2016

A jam packed Sunday of football brings of NFL action across two continents with the Jacksonville Jaguars facing off with the Indianapolis Colts in Wembley Stadium. We’s also got a couple of intriguing matchups highlighted by an AFC showdown between the Chiefs and Steelers on Sunday night. Look for the Jets to get back on track and “upset” the Seattle Seahawks who are taking a trip across the country to play an early game.

Posted By:Bretsky on September 25, 2016

Sunday brings us another glorious day of football. Let’s see what trends hold up from the first two weeks and continue to shape the landscape for the season.

We’re buying No. 1 overall QB Matt Ryan to continue his success in a Monday night showdown at the Super Dome.