Posted By:Bretsky on November 12, 2013

Another week, another pair of fantasy assets ruled out for the season. In Houston, we lost yet another consensus first-round selection as Arian Foster is headed to injured reserve with a back injury. There’s not all that much to do with the Texan’s backfield as next-man-up Ben Tate has been universally owned throughout the year as one of the top handcuffs in the game. We saw some flashes from Dennis Johnson last that landed him as a sleeper pickup heading into Week 10, but four carries for seven yards late, it’s hard to get all that excited about Johnson.

In Tampa Bay, emerging rookie Mike James was on his way to another standout effort, piling up 41 yards o five carries, before suffering a fractured ankle that will force him to injured reserve. The Bucs’ used a combination of Brian Leonard and Bobby Rainey to carry the mail on the way to their first victory and while Doug Martin had struggled to get much of anything going behind the Buccaneer’s offensive line, Rainey and Leonard–like James before them–found some room to run. Rainey put together the more intriguing performance, rushing for 45 yards and a touchdown on eight carries while adding an 11 yards reception. Leonard got the bigger workload with 20 carries, but managed just 57 yards. Leonard has been a sneaky-but-solid PPR play over the past several weeks–totaling 14 targets in the last three games–and figures to continue to function in that role moving forward. Rainey, however, is the runner we’d be looking to add on waivers in standard formats. He showed some nice burst and vision while salting away the game for the Bucs on Monday night and, at this point in the season, you might as well take a flier on any running back with a pulse that gets double-digit carries.

As we’ve been doing for the last several weeks, the following list is prioritized based on the order we’d draft these guys if putting together a team from Week 11 on. Obviously, team needs will often dictate which positions you target on the wire.

Working the Waiver Wire

Andre Brown – NYG (50%)

Fresh off the injury and into the workhorse role. Brown clearly outplayed Peyton Hillis and is locked in as a RB2 down the stretch.

Rashad Jennings – OAK (50%)

Jennings continues to look solid in relief of Darren McFadden and  is worth rolling out there while he’s got the starting job.

Andre Roberts – ARI (5%)

With Michael Floyd battling injuries, Roberts stepped up to grab 5 catches for 72 yards and a touchdown on eight targets. Larry Fitzgerald continues to warrant excessive defensive attention on the other side, leaving Roberts in single coverage more often than not.

Bobby Rainey – TB (3%)

Rainey shoots towards the top of the list after his breakout game on Monday night.

Rashard Mendenhall – ARI (49%)

Of course we’ve been pumping up Andre Ellington since the season started, but that has not stopped the coaching staff from rolling Mendenhall out there whenever healthy. He lost a critical fumble late in the game, but prior to the fourth-quarter mis-step, Mendy actually looked to have some bounce in his step.

Jarret Boykin – GB  (43%)

Boykin came to life with practice-squad superstar Scott Tolzein at the reigns of the offense. Boykin was targeted 13 times and turned that attention into 7 catches for 118 yards.

Mario Manningham – SF (9%)

It’s been a while since we’ve seen Manningham put forth a useful fantasy game, but the Niners’ aerial attack simply must find some diversity.

Rishard Matthews – MIA (3%)

Ryan Tannehill was locked in on Matthews throughout the team’s Week 10 loss, hooking up with the slot man for 120 on 11 receptions to go along with two touchdowns. Tannehill had previously leaned on the now-injured Brandon Gibson while he was playing a similar role in the offense so perhaps there’s a little something here.

Kenny Stills – NO (40%)

Stills got his big play on Sunday. The threat is always there, and while you can’t bank on it. He’s a boom or bust WR3 at this point.

Tavon Austin – STL (44%)

The electric Austin flashed his jaw-dropping speed on Sunday with three long touchdowns. Still, he caught only two passes and was targeted only three times while appearing in just 18 offensive plays. That is not a recipe for continued success.

Lance Moore – NO (47%)

Anyone who picked up and started Moore ended up sorely disappointed on Sunday when he caught just one of his two targets. Still, he’s got time to carve out a bigger role down the stretch.

Mark Ingram – NO (16%)

Ingram looked fantastic on Sunday but prospective owners need to check expectations. Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles command more work in the running game, leaving Ingram as a true desperation play.

Mike Tolbert – CAR (37%)

Tolbert was not particularly effective in Week 10 and an increased role form Jonathan Stewart continues to truly muck up any value in the Carolina backfield.

Brian Leonoard – TB (5%)

PPR players can expect a little something from Leonard each and every week. If he solidifies a goal line role, there could be some real value.

Darrius Heyward-Bey – IND (37%)

He’s failed to do much with recent opportunities, but if DHB keeps seeing 6+ targets a game, he’ll have a chance to make a splash in deeper leagues.

Shonn Greene – TEN (22%)

While the workload was similar to Week 9, Greene failed to get in the end zone in Week 10 and, thus, failed to return any value for his owners.

Tyler Eifert – CIN (22%)

It’s hard to take much away from Eifert’s effort as he’s unlikely to see double-digit targets once Jermaine Gresham is healthy.

Donald Brown – IND (16%)

Brown continues to out-produce Trent Richardson while returning some serious value in the passing game on Sunday.

Posted By:Bretsky on November 8, 2013

Week 10 Preview: Move a Bust

»Listen On the latest 4th Down Fantasy Football Podcast Wayne Bretsky and Michael Pichan get you prepped for Week 10 of the NFL Season discussing the latest news and notes while bringing you their top sleepers and value plays for daily fantasy contests. The try to cope with Aaron Rodgers’ injury while looking to the waiver wire for replacements and discuss the opportunity to trade an injured Arian Foster. Bretsky and Michael then reveal their stretch-run busts that you should be selling high on before diving into Week 10 Daily Fantasy Sleepers and Value plays.

First Down * News & Notes *

• Aaron Rodgers out with a fractured collarbone
• Arian Foster spends his week with back specialists
• Doug Martin awaits his fate
• Giants place David Wilson on IR
• Live from New York, it’s Andre Brown!

Second Down * Stretch Run Busts*

• Andy Dalton
• Knowshon Moreno
• Andre Ellington
• Giovani Bernard
• Deangelo Williams
• Eddie Royal
• Julius Thomas

Third Down *Week 10 Daily Fantasy Sleepers and Values *

• QB: Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, Nick Foles
• RB: Lamar Miller, Marshawn Lynch, Danny Woodhead
• WR: Damaryius Thomas, Roddy White
• TE: Jason Witten, Tony Gonzalez

Fourth Down * Mail Bag*

• Mail Bag!

The 4th Down Fantasy Football Podcast is part of the Armed Forces Radio Network Title Music: Summon the Rawk – Kevin MacLeod (http://incompetech.com)

Posted By:Bretsky on November 7, 2013

Each and every week our rankings team brings you position-by-position rankings for standard scoring fantasy leagues. Navigate below to find where your players slot in.

2013 BretskyBall.com Rankings Team

Wayne Bretsky – Follow @BretskyBall
Justin Bell – Follow @BellJr56

Week 10 Fantasy Football Quarterback Rankings

Posted By:Bretsky on November 7, 2013

Each and every week our rankings team brings you position-by-position rankings for standard scoring fantasy leagues. Navigate below to find where your players slot in.

2013 BretskyBall.com Rankings Team

Wayne Bretsky – Follow @BretskyBall
Justin Bell – Follow @BellJr56

Week 10 Fantasy Football Running Back Rankings

Posted By:Bretsky on November 7, 2013

Each and every week our rankings team brings you position-by-position rankings for standard scoring fantasy leagues. Navigate below to find where your players slot in.

2013 BretskyBall.com Rankings Team

Wayne Bretsky – Follow @BretskyBall
Justin Bell – Follow @BellJr56

Week 10 Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Rankings

Posted By:Bretsky on November 7, 2013

Each and every week our rankings team brings you position-by-position rankings for standard scoring fantasy leagues. Navigate below to find where your players slot in.

2013 BretskyBall.com Rankings Team

Wayne Bretsky – Follow @BretskyBall
Justin Bell – Follow @BellJr56

Week 9 Fantasy Football Tight End Rankings

Posted By:Bretsky on November 7, 2013

Each and every week our rankings team brings you position-by-position rankings for standard scoring fantasy leagues. Navigate below to find where your players slot in.

2013 BretskyBall.com Rankings Team

Wayne Bretsky – Follow @BretskyBall
Justin Bell – Follow @BellJr56

Week 10 Fantasy Football Defense Rankings

Posted By:Bretsky on November 7, 2013

Each and every week our rankings team brings you position-by-position rankings for standard scoring fantasy leagues. Navigate below to find where your players slot in.

2013 BretskyBall.com Rankings Team

Wayne Bretsky – Follow @BretskyBall
Justin Bell – Follow @BellJr56

Week 10 Fantasy Football Kicker Rankings

Posted By:Bretsky on November 6, 2013

Of course, it always ends up just how we expect it. That’s right, you know your league-mate who trotted out that deadly Nick Foles-to-Riley Cooper combination this Sunday? Yeah, turns out they also starter Darrel Young and Davon Bess. In one of the oddest weeks in memory, the leader board is riddled with relative unknowns. We broke down their impact on the Waiver Wire on Tuesday and now, let’s take a minute to go deeper on one of the more surprising units in Week 9.

Is it Deja Vu? Well, sort of. We overreacted about the Eagles’ speedy offense way back in September when they simply thrashed the Redskins in the season opener. It hasn’t exactly been a smooth ride since, but new circumstances warrant another look at Nick Foles’ Eagles.

The Situation

Two weeks after a pitiful performance against the division rival Dallas Cowboys, Nick Foles bounced back to put up a historically great performance. He tossed seven touchdown passes in a 49-20 rout of the Raiders while racking up 406 passing yards. Did we mention that those seven scoring strikes were two more than the number of incompletions he threw? It was big play after big play for Foles and the up-tempo Eagles offense. The QB showed solid mobility and was given the time that his predecessor Michael Vick rarely had the luxury of behind that Philly offensive line. Foles hooked up with surprising standout Riley Cooper on three scoring strikes, but was also sure to get the regulars involved as both Lesean McCoy and Desean Jackson got into the mix as well. It’s time to do what every fine fantasy owner should and overreact to this monstrous performance.

Nick Foles

Reaction

It is an interesting case for fantasy owners as the short-term outlook for Foles continues to look rosy, while playing in the defensively challenged NFC East. Perhaps his biggest obstacle down the stretch is Michael Vick‘s hamstring, as we don’t yet know who would get the call if both were healthy. It certainly won’t be the schedule that is holding Foles back, as the Eagles look ahead to matchups with Green Bay, Washington, Dallas, Detroit Minnesota and Chicago down the stretch, hardly a murderer’s row.

Overreaction

Foles is a must add in every format and will continue to dominate. Look, the Eagles finally re-captured their up-tempo mojo with Foles at the helm and for Chip Kelly and the playoff-contending Eagles, what reason to they have to move back to Michael Vick?

The Takaway

Foles is a borderline top-10 play for as long as he’s the starter, but trusting him as any more than that is a mistake. While it’s easy to scoff at the notion that a healthy Michael Vick will return to a starting role, we wouldn’t be all that shocked to see that happen in the next couple of weeks. Quarterback changes are not moves to be taken lightly and the dynamic in the locker room — which us fans are not privy too —  will carry a whole lot of weight in Chip Kelly’s decision. Foles will need to continue to perform with a level of consistency he has not yet shown. Consider that in the 11 career games in which Foles has attempted at least 20 passes, he has posted a QB rating over 90 five times, while putting up a QB rating below 65 in three of those games games.  His true performance likely lies somewhere in between but, with the team very much alive in the pitiful NFC East, we can be sure that Kelly will not want his quarterback working out the kinks on the field.

Riley Cooper

Reaction

Riley Cooper is averaging 6.3 targets per game when Nick Foles has started under center, with the strong target volume translating to 118.6 yards/game and four touchdowns in those three games. His production with Foles running the offense reflects, at worst, WR2 value, making Cooper the clear-cut top waiver pickup for the week.

Overreaction

Cooper isn’t just a must-add, but he’s a must-start moving forward. Over the past four weeks, the wideout is averaging 14.75 fantasy points per game in standard scoring formats. To put that into perspective, consider that Calvin Johnson has averaged 16.8 fantasy points per game so far this season. With the per-game production we’ve been seeing out of Riley of late, it’s not difficult to make a case for him as a top-10 option when the Eagles take on a middle-of-the-road Packers secondary in Week 10.

The Takaway

An increased role for Riley Cooper moving forward can be expected, but we are also not necessarily calling him a must-add on the waiver wire. Cooper will continue to have useful weeks, but consistency issues remain. Under normal circumstances, we’d like to leave Cooper on the wire as little more than a bye-week plugin. But this season has a bit of a different feel to it. Not only ave we been pounded in recent weeks by a heavy bye schedule, but we’ve also seen injuries slash the once-great depth at the wide receiver position. Owners who have had to deal with missed time from highly-touted receivers like Roddy White, Randall Cobb, Julio Jones, Justin Blackmon, and Reggie Wayne would gladly scoop a 6+ targets and 80+ yards off of the wire and plug it right into the lineup.

Desean Jackson

Reaction

Deasean Jackson remains and established, and elite option, and while we may previously have been worried about the impact of the QB change, the speedy receiver has seen his target total dip just slightly when Foles is chucking it. He remains even, if not slightly ahead, of Cooper in the pecking order. Jackson’s value change is insignificant.

Overreaction

Desean Jackson is putting together his finest (read: most consistent) season as a pro. It’s all Chip Kelly and it’s all real. Yes, he compiled much of his Week 9  fantasy goodness on one long play from Foles, but Desean is involved in the offense in a way that Andy Ried could not seem to figure out. The Eagles call D-Jax number at or near the line of scrimmage repeatedly, keeping his typically inconsistent floor higher than it’s ever been. Trust Desean as a No. 1 wide receiver.

The Takaway

It’s status quo on Desean. While he had previously represented a true boom-or-bust fantasy option, Jackson is now locked in at an every week start. Continue to have roll him out there regardless of who is taking snaps under center.

Lesean McCoy

Reaction

McCoy is the toughest case to gauge and, in a vacuum, he the most reliable fantasy commodity on this offense. Still, there is no getting around the fact that his yards-per-carry drops (5.8 ypc with Vick, 3.7 ypc with Foles) to a pretty mediocre level when Foles is in the game.

Overreaction

The  pro-bowl running back, is the one we may have to worry about. No one is doubting McCoy’s ability to make plays in every facet of the football game, but as mentioned, the running lanes just aren’t quite as open for Shady as they seem to be with Michael Vick under center. In each of Nick Foles’ three starts, McCoy’s production has dipped. He saved owners with a touchdown reception on Sunday, but just 12 carries (for 44 yards) and four more looks in the passing game is a bit below the workhorse levels that were expected

The Takaway

In time, defenses will have to adjust to Foles and the passing attack, but at this point, it’s fair to wonder how much of Shady’s elite production was tied to Michael Vick’s legs. He’ll continue to get work in the passing game and we know he can make just about any defender on the planet miss, but McCoy’s day’s as the No. 1 back atop our rest-of-season rankings are over.

Posted By:Bretsky on November 5, 2013

Working the Wire

It was a most interesting Week in the NFL, with a historic performance from a relatively unowned QB, a number of multi-touchdown wide receivers that nobody had in their lineup (Riley Cooper/Devon Bess/Jericho Cotchery… come on down!), and an elite fantasy performance from one Tom Brady. It wasn’t all unscripted, however, as we did see Darren McFadden exit on the Radiers’ first drive with an injury and we also watched Ray Rice struggle once again, so some of Week 9 unfolded as expected. Of course, that’s all while ignoring perhaps the biggest story line to emerge from the week, Aaron Rodgers‘ injured left shoulder/collarbone that, according to reports, does not look good.

While A-Rod owners attempt to make plays for Week 10 (and hopefully not beyond) many others will rejoice in the relatively lighter bye week with four teams off (Cleveland, Kansas City, New England and the Jets). We are going to shift through the scrap heap heading into Week 10 and give you a couple of quick thoughts on a number of players available in >50% of standard Yahoo leagues.

Working the Waiver Wire

The list below is arranged in the order in which we would select these guys if drafting today for the rest of the 2013 season. Of course, team needs will dictate your top targets, but we’ll leave that to you!

Aaron Dobson (NE – WR) 51%

For a few weeks now, Aaron Dobson has seen his playing time increase steadily. While he had shown flashes early on, inconsistency on both the quarterback’s and the receiver’s end of this connection reared it’s ugly head. Sunday, the Tom Brady we all know marched right back into Gillette Stadium and with it, planted Rob Gornkowski, Danny Amendola, Stevan Ridley and…… Aaron Dobson right back into the discussion as elite fantasy players. We thought we were just waiting on Gronk for things to click, and even though it took just a bit longer, this offense is ready to rock. Dobson was on the field for virtually every play and saw nine targets on Sunday leading to five catches, 130 yards and a pair of scores on Sunday. He needs to be owned in every league, make that happen.

Shane Vereen (NE – RB) 46%

Though Stevan Ridley showed some signs of life in recent weeks, Vereen will have a large role in the offense once he returns. The Pats are on bye this week, but now is the time to scoop up the versatile running back.

David Wilson (NYG – RB) 31%

Wilson got some positive news early this week, though he is not yet cleared to play. As Rotoworld points out, despite Wilson’s frustrating start to the season, the electric sophomore has averaged 4.4 yards per carry over his first 21 NFL games with seven total touchdowns. Elite upside remains, don’t let that sit out on the wire.

Andre Brown (NYG – RB) 37%

Injuries have plagued Brown throughout his career and this season started no differently, with a broken leg in the preseason. He’s back to 100% and is finally eligible to return after being placed on IR to stat the season. He Giants’ backfield is a murky mess, but Brown knows the offense and showed last year that he’s more than your average thumper. With New York’s offense finally starting to show some life, Brown has flex appeal in Week 10 with the potential for a larger role heading into the playoffs.

Nick Foles (PHI – QB) 27%

Coming off of a masterful performance, Foles will likely be the top add for Aaron Rodgers owners when he, ironically enough, takes on that very Packers team in Week 10. We still have our doubts that Foles role as the Eagles’ No. 1 is solidified in the long term, but for now, he looks like a top-12 fantasy play with the Birds getting back to their up-temp0 game plan.

Rashad Jennings (OAK – RB) 12%

With Darren McFadden once-again sidelined with injury, Jennings stepped up in a big way against a mediocre Eagles defense. He rumbled for 102 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries and added seven catches for 76 yards in the passing game. DMC seems unlikely to do any running in practice this week, so Jennings and Marcel Reese are thrust back into a time share atop the depth chart. Take his performance in a tasty matchup with a grain of salt, but he gets the equally porous Giants next week and if you continue to struggle with running back depth, Jennings is worth a look.

Lance Moore (NO  -WR) 46%

Moore was listed in this space last week and with Marques Colston and Darren Sproles exiting early with a concussion, Moore became the top non-Jimmy Graham option in the Saints’ aerial attack. He’s not gonna explode on the stat sheet, but it is hard to argue with nine catches for 104 yards and a TD on 14 targets over the past two weeks.

Kendall Wright (TEN – WR) 51%

Jake Locker’s favorite target continues to produce solid totals for fantasy owners, though we’d appreciate a few more scores. since a pitiful week one, 5.8 catches for 70 yards per game. Solid numbers for PPR owners.

Mike Brown (JAX – WR) 7%

Brown is likely to be the biggest benefactor of Justin Blackmon‘s season-ending suspension and has been coming along of late. In the three games prior to the Jags’ Week 9 bye, Brown reeled in 12-of-19 targets for 202 yards and a touchdown.

Riley Cooper (PHI – WR) 12%

Cooper put together his second 100-yard receiving game of the season on Sunday — both with Nick Foles at the helm — and also hit pay dirt three times, bumping his season total up to five. He has the size of a solid red zone threat, but Cooper’s hands have failed him all too often. He’ll be on the radar as a WR3 moving forward, but expecting defenses to let him just run free down the sideline week after week is a fool’s errand.

Roy Helu (WAS – RB) 44%

Tough to trust in his current role, but if something were to happen to Alfred Morris, Helu would be a top-12 running back.

Dennis Johnson (HOU – RB) 0%

Johnson showed flashes on Sunday, gaining 36 yards on eight totes and while ben tate was able to tough it out for 81 yards on 22 carries through four broken ribs, he and Arian Foster remain clear injury risks. Foster owners need to keep Johnson at arm’s length and if you are through with most of the bye weeks, it’s time to consider handcuffing your handcuff.

Mike Tolbert (CAR – RB) 37%

Jonathan Stewart returned in Week 9, just in time to muck up the fantasy value of backfield-mate Deangelo Williams. Still, the most valuable running back on the Panthers remians Tolbert, who gets the majority of the work in close and chips in just enough in the passing game to get into double-digits on a weekly basis for PPR players.

Brandon Lafell (CAR – WR) 25%

Lafell continues to see soft coverage working across from veteran stud Steve Smith and has been turning that into solid production on a semi-frequent basis. In his past four weeks, he’s been held under 40 yards twice, but also put up two solid fantasy performances. He’s a boom-or-bust option down the stretch.

Eddie Royal (WR – SD) 47%

Royal hit the end zone on Sunday for the seventh time this season and for his second time in as many games. He’s a decent gamble for a score in his current role, but we’ll leave him at the bottom of this list for the touchdown chasers out there. Aside from the scores, Royal has put together a pretty mediocre season, grabbing more that three passes just three times all season and catching more than four balls just once. This is not an elite option.

Tim Wright (TE – TB) 13%

I suppose we need to put a tight end on the list. Wright has scored in back to back games and is becoming a fast-favorite of rookie QB Mike Glennon. We prefer a matchup-based approach to picking our tight ends, but Wright should move to the top of the list if you are looking to hitch your wagon to one guy for a stretch run.

Shonn Greene (TEN – RB) 17%

Well he didn’t quite get to the 15 carries prescribed by head coach Mike Munchak, but fantasy owners who rolled the dice will hardly be disappointing in the 9-for-38 performance with a touchdown. He’ll continue to get work at the goal line in an improving Titans offense.

Marlon Brown (BAL – WR) 10%

Brown had a big week while teammate Torrey Smith was blanketed by Joe Haden in Week 9 and though he’s shown more than enough to warrant fantasy consideration, Joe Flacco’s inconcistency and the presence of Jacoby Jones leave him lacking in opportunity.